Circular economy in lubricants market: The Brazilian case The Brazilian lubricant market exemplifies how the synergy between policies, engineering, and logistics can deliver significant results to increase circularity
Marcio Wagner Da Silva Petrobras
O ne of the most relevant concerns in the modern refining industry is the necessity to improve the circularity potential of the whole industry. The carbon intensity of crude oil refining remains high despite dedicated efforts over the past 10 years or more. This has created an increasingly hostile scenario for refiners, especially those focused on the production of transportation fuels like gasoline and diesel. Improvements in fuel efficiency, the growing market share of electric vehicles, and the transition to more sustainable fuels are reducing the demand for transportation fuels, which in turn reduces crude oil demand globally. Furthermore, emerging technologies such as additive manufacturing (3D printing) will have a negative impact on demand for transportation fuels. Altogether, these trends create a hostile future scenario for fossil fuels. On the other hand, the outlook for non-energy derivatives, such as petrochemicals, lubricants and bitumens,
by 2035. Figure 1 shows the forecast growth in the lubricants market. Economic and technological developments in lubricant applications have required the production of lubricating oils with higher quality and performance, and lower contaminant content. The main quality requirements for lubricating oils are viscosity, flash point, viscosity index (viscosity change with temperature), fluidity point, chemical stability, and volatility. The American Petroleum Institute (API) classifies lubricant base oils into four groups, as shown in Table 1 . Groups II, III, and IV oils have higher specifications than Group I oils, with superior viscosity index and significantly lower levels of contaminants such as sulphur and unsaturated compounds. Despite the attractiveness of the lubricants market, circularity remains a concern, and refiners are increasingly calling for actions to ensure high
Lubricants market size 2025 to 2035
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continues to present a growing consumer market. These end-use sectors can also offer higher added value than fuels. According to trend analysts and recent forecasts, the lubricants market size was valued at $157 billion in 2025 and will grow at a compound annual rate of around 3.97% to reach a total value of $33 billion
$232.91
$224.50
$215.86
$207.56
$199.58
$191.90
200
$184.52
$177.42
$170.60
$164.04
$157.73
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100
50
0
2025
2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035
Figure 1 Lubricants market size 2025 to 2035
( Precedence Research, 2026)
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