Decarbonisation Technology August 2025 Issue

From laboratory to commercial- scale SAF production How the power of collaboration, innovation, and a steadfast commitment to sustainability helped develop a viable, commercial, and scalable SAF solution

Daniel Bloch LanzaJet

Setting the aviation scene Current estimates suggest that the airline industry could demand as much as 625 billion litres of jet fuel (approximately 165 billion gallons) by 2050, up from the sector’s current annual consumption of around 375 billion litres (approximately 100 billion gallons). Regardless of how one looks at these figures, it is truly a staggering amount of fuel (see Figure 1 ). Importantly, most of this growth will be driven by developing markets, which have historically had less access to air connectivity relative to regions like the US and Europe. For example, the wider Asia-Pacific region is expected to account for more than 50% of new air traffic demand by 2040. Additionally, demand in Africa is set to grow at 5% per annum (well above the 3% global average), while India will join the US and China as a new aviation giant. This trend means that more people will gain access to the convenience, practicality, and

joy of flying. Currently, it is estimated that only about 20-25% of the world’s population has ever flown on an aeroplane. However, as with any sector, there will always be the question of how the industry plans to mitigate and reduce its environmental impact, especially with such ambitious growth projections. Unlike other industries, aviation lacks a range of alternatives to reduce its footprint, but there is one option that is leading the way. The solution Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is an entirely compatible, drop-in alternative for existing aircraft and airport infrastructure. It meets the same range of operational specifications as conventional Jet A1, which means it looks and performs the same (if not better) as its fossil equivalent, while being produced from waste carbon sources that exist above the ground. In practice, this sees the conversion of everyday,

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Figure 1 Global SAF production is expected to scale significantly by 2050, with emerging technologies driving the majority of future growth Source: LEK report Fueling the future of aviation (2023)