Decarbonisation Technology August 2025 Issue

May 2023 Decarbonisati n Technolo gy Powering the Transition to Sustainable Fuels & Energy August 2025 Powering the Transition to Sustainable Fuels & Energy

UTILISATION OF CAPTURED CARBON RENEWABLE HYDROGEN & HYDROGEN SAFETY UTILISING CAPTURED CARBON REDUCING METHANE EMISSIONS

SUSTAINABLE AVIATION AND MARINE FUELS SCALING SAF PRODUCTION DECARBONISATION OF REFINING VALUE CHAINS HYDROGEN: ELECTROLYSIS AT SCALE

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Contents

August 2025

From laboratory to commercial-scale SAF production Daniel Bloch LanzaJet

Redefining the renewable hydrogen landscape Richard D Colwill InterContinental Energy

Sector consolidation: good news for green hydrogen Stephen B Harrison sbh4 Consulting

Methane emissions reduction using gas turbine technology Valeria Angelino, Maria Lozano, Andrea Mantini, Chad Williams, and Franco Lucherini Baker Hughes

Evaluating methanol, hydrogen, thermal, and battery storage Ashish Gupta and Vaibhav Desai KonsciousPlanet

Unlocking value from plastic waste Alexandra Sakamoto and Luis Grau Shell Catalysts & Technologies

Clean hydrogen production technology Lars Martiny Topsoe

Reusing carbon, circular molecules Amna Bezanty, Richard Freeman, and Alex Howard Engineurs

Decarbonising exisiting heating systems with power-to-gas Natan Shahar Standard Carbon

Valorisation of ethanol as a renewable chemical feedstock Matthias Stehle, Maurice Moll, Charlotte Langheck, and Benjamin Mutz hte GmbH

Anatomy of the alkaline electrolyser optimisation Gregory Yakhnin, Galina Gurina, and Gregory Shahnovsky Modcon Systems Ltd

© 2025. The entire content of this publication is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means – electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise – without the prior permission of the copyright owner. The opinions and views expressed by the authors in this publication are not necessarily those of the editor or publisher and while every care has been taken in the preparation of all material included the publisher cannot be held responsible for any statements, opinions or views or for any inaccuracies.

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CO 2 , Catch it ’cause you can!

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Carbon Capture and Storage will play a critical role in helping the energy sector and heavy industries to achieve net zero emissions by 2050. Significant challenges stand in the way of its successful industrial deployment. Discover the innovative carbon capture absorption technology DMX™, that offers improved performance and reduced energy requirements. www.axens.net

Since the 2015 Conference of the Parties (COP), the majority of nations have worked to progress plans with the aim of limiting the increase in the global average temperature to 1.5ºC. This mission is based on a global scientific consensus coordinated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which states that human activities to provide food, energy, and materials result in emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs). The scale of these emissions has led to an increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide to its highest level in more than two million years. The IPCC found a strong correlation between the increasing concentration of GHG in the atmosphere and the increase in the average surface temperature of the Earth, which in 2019 reached 1.09ºC. Last year, this exceeded 1.5ºC for the first time, which has unequivocally led to global warming. Focusing on energy, the extraction, processing, and combustion of fossil fuels to provide energy results in the release of carbon dioxide, methane, and other GHGs into the atmosphere. While it represents an unprecedented challenge, a transition away from the use of fossil fuels to renewable sources of energy is considered to be the most effective way of reducing these emissions. The energy transition is progressing, with growth in renewable sources of electric power, along with the scale-up of emerging technologies for the production and use of fuels and chemicals with lower ‘carbon intensities’, including those made with captured carbon. Despite this progress, it is clear both that the transition will take decades and that fossil fuel usage, with its ensuing emissions, will continue for many years before it eventually declines. Short-term actions that can have a meaningful impact on emissions and buy time for the implementation of longer- term emissions reduction approaches on a meaningful scale are crucial during the transition. The use of methane, which would otherwise be flared or emitted in ongoing oil and gas operations, is a prime example of this and a key element in meeting the Global Methane Pledge (zero methane emissions from oil and gas operations by 2030). Carbon capture and storage is recognised by the IPCC as a critical mitigation measure during the transition. Carbon capture and utilisation (CCU or CCUS) goes a step further by reusing captured carbon, which effectively reduces the demand for fossil fuels and moves towards restoring a healthy carbon cycle. Our future will be built on renewable power and low-carbon-intensity hydrogen in combination with recycled carbon from CCU and the repurposing of waste hydrocarbons from plastic and biomass.

Managing Editor Rachel Storry

rachel.storry@emap.com tel +44 (0)7786 136440 Consulting Editor

Robin Nelson robin.nelson@ decarbonisationtechnology.com Editorial Assistant Lisa Harrison lisa.harrison@emap.com Graphics Peter Harper Business Development Director Paul Mason info@decarbonisationtechnology.com

tel +44 844 5888 771 Business Development Luke Massingham Luke.Massingham@ petroleumtechnology.com Managing Director Richard Watts richard.watts@emap.com

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Cover Story Standard Carbon is decarbonising a 1 GW combined cycle power plant, operated by the Israel Electric Company. Courtesy: Standard Carbon

Dr Robin Nelson

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The world’s energy system is changing. To solve the challenges, Shell Catalysts & Technologies is developing its Decarbonisation Solutions portfolio to provide integrated value chains of technologies to help industries navigate the energy transition. Our experienced teams of consultants and engineers draw on Shell’s owner–operator– licensor expertise to co-create pathways and technology solutions to address your specific decarbonisation ambitions – creating a cleaner way forward together. Learn more at shell.com/decarbonisation. Accelerating decarbonisation solutions together

From laboratory to commercial- scale SAF production How the power of collaboration, innovation, and a steadfast commitment to sustainability helped develop a viable, commercial, and scalable SAF solution

Daniel Bloch LanzaJet

Setting the aviation scene Current estimates suggest that the airline industry could demand as much as 625 billion litres of jet fuel (approximately 165 billion gallons) by 2050, up from the sector’s current annual consumption of around 375 billion litres (approximately 100 billion gallons). Regardless of how one looks at these figures, it is truly a staggering amount of fuel (see Figure 1 ). Importantly, most of this growth will be driven by developing markets, which have historically had less access to air connectivity relative to regions like the US and Europe. For example, the wider Asia-Pacific region is expected to account for more than 50% of new air traffic demand by 2040. Additionally, demand in Africa is set to grow at 5% per annum (well above the 3% global average), while India will join the US and China as a new aviation giant. This trend means that more people will gain access to the convenience, practicality, and

joy of flying. Currently, it is estimated that only about 20-25% of the world’s population has ever flown on an aeroplane. However, as with any sector, there will always be the question of how the industry plans to mitigate and reduce its environmental impact, especially with such ambitious growth projections. Unlike other industries, aviation lacks a range of alternatives to reduce its footprint, but there is one option that is leading the way. The solution Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is an entirely compatible, drop-in alternative for existing aircraft and airport infrastructure. It meets the same range of operational specifications as conventional Jet A1, which means it looks and performs the same (if not better) as its fossil equivalent, while being produced from waste carbon sources that exist above the ground. In practice, this sees the conversion of everyday,

500

Power-to-liquid & direct air capture Gasication ATJ HEFA

400

300

Circular

200

100

2022

22 23 24 25

28 29 30 31

34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48

Figure 1 Global SAF production is expected to scale significantly by 2050, with emerging technologies driving the majority of future growth Source: LEK report Fueling the future of aviation (2023)

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Figure 2 Opening of LanzaJet Freedom Pines Fuels in Soperton, Georgia, USA, January 2024

low-value wastes, residues, byproducts, and non-food crops into jet fuel, thereby foregoing the harmful process of extracting fossil carbon from underground. It is the ultimate expression of the circular economy in practice. By converting often harmful or otherwise discarded sources into fuel, the process can deliver a range of societal benefits, including improved waste management, ecosystem clean-up and restoration, as well as enhanced water, soil, and air quality. This complements the physical output of the renewable fuel itself, which, through its full production lifecycle, offers an average carbon reduction of around 70-80% compared to traditional Jet A1. While emission reductions will also come from airlines integrating newer aircraft models with lighter airframes and improved fuel efficiencies, in tandem with more optimised air operations, the aviation industry recognises that more than 60% of its emission reductions will need to come from the production and use of SAF. Based on that projection, the industry will need hundreds of billions of litres of SAF by 2050. Where are we now? It is important to remember that the industry only started adoption and scaling of SAF in very

recent years. In 2019, it was estimated that global volumes sat at just 25 million litres. Fast- forward to 2025, and this figure has grown to 2.5 billion litres, representing a 100x increase in just six years. While this figure still represents only 0.7% of current total jet fuel demand, this rate of change is profound and will only continue along this trajectory. That said, the industry is currently on the verge of a tipping point. To date, SAFs have predominantly been sourced from a mature technology that creates fuel from waste fats and lipids, such as used cooking oil from industrial kitchens. The problem is that this bio-oil conversion pathway, known as hydrotreatment of fatty acids and esters (HEFA), will reach a plateau caused by the availability of sustainable waste oils to process into fuel. While HEFA will continue to play an important role going forward, its volumes will soon plateau at a maximum annual threshold, which, when stretched out to 2050, may account for only 5-10% of overall SAF volume needs. Adding to the challenge, while there are several other operationally approved SAF production pathways that can leverage alternative sources of waste or feedstocks, none have yet delivered volumes of fuel at a commercial scale. To distil this down into a very clear takeaway:

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Alcohol-to-Jet technology process

Step

Input

Output

Purpose

Dehydration

Ethanol Ethylene

Ethylene

Remove water to create reactive olefins Build jet-fuel-range hydrocarbons Stabilise and saturate hydrocarbons Isolate SAF and renewable diesel

Oligomerisation Hydrogenation Fractionation

Long-chain olefins Paraffins (alkanes)

Olefins

Hydrocarbons

Fuel

Table 1 ATJ technology process draws on principles from traditional oil and gas refining, such as catalytic conversion, distillation, and hydrogenation, to transform alcohols into jet-range hydrocarbons

the airline industry’s emission reduction strategy is largely dependent on a suite of green, breakthrough, first-of-a-kind (FOAK) technologies to deliver its all-important net-zero 2050 goal. In turn, the industry has been on the lookout for pioneering companies seeking to successfully deliver the next commercially scaled SAF production pathway. LanzaJet’s Alcohol-to-Jet (ATJ) solution is a fully certified SAF pathway, leveraging ethanol as its input, which can be produced from virtually any form of non-fossil, hydrocarbon waste stream. From laboratory innovation to commercial reality The inception of LanzaJet’s ATJ technology dates back to a collaboration between LanzaTech, the US Department of Energy, and the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory in 2010. This partnership yielded a catalytic process capable of converting ethanol into SAF, representing a pivotal advancement in aviation’s energy transition aspirations. Given its similarity to the process of producing alcohol, the industry accredited the ethanol pathway with the official name of ‘Alcohol-to-Jet’ or ‘ATJ’. Building upon this foundational technology, LanzaJet was spun out of LanzaTech in 2020 as an independent company, with the specific aim of specialising in, commercialising, and globally scaling the ATJ SAF pathway. The company’s first major milestone was in August 2024, when LanzaJet’s Freedom Pines Fuels facility in Soperton, Georgia (USA) celebrated its mechanical completion (see Figure 2 ). In doing so, the 37 million litre (10 million gallon) plant also became the world’s first refinery to position itself as a non-oil-based drop-in fuel solution for the airline industry. This facility seeks to demonstrate the practical application of ATJ

technology by utilising a range of low-carbon ethanol sources and converting these into SAF. Alcohol-to-Jet technology LanzaJet’s technology is split into four discrete processes, which enable the end-to-end conversion of any ethanol source into a drop-in commercial SAF blending component.  Dehydration What happens: Ethanol (C₂H₅OH) is dehydrated over a catalyst to form ethylene (C₂H₄). This serves as the foundational step, producing a hydrocarbon from which longer carbon chains suitable for jet fuel application can be formed. Water is also formed in this process as a byproduct. Chemical reaction: C₂H₅OH → C₂H₄ + H₂O  Oligomerisation What happens: The ethylene molecules (C₂H₄) are then brought into contact under conditions that build olefins in the C8-C16 range needed for jet fuel. Catalyst reaction (simplified): C₂H₄ → C₄H₈, C₆H₁₂, C₈H₁₆, etc.  Hydrogenation What happens: These longer chain olefins (alkenes) are then treated with hydrogen over catalyst, which saturates the olefins to form paraffins (alkanes). This helps to improve stability, reduce reactivity, and meet jet fuel specifications. Chemical reaction: CnH₂n (alkene) + H₂ → CnH₂n+2 (alkane)  Fractionation What happens: The alkanes, now in the form of a hydrocarbon mixture of varying chain

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LanzaJet’s global investor network

Investor

Year 2020 2020 2020 2021 2021 2021 2021 2021 2024 2024 2024 2024

Stakeholder

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

LanzaTech

Technology partner

Suncor Energy

Energy

Mitsui & Co.

Trading and infrastructure

British Airways/IAG

Airline/offtaker

Microsoft

Technology/Climate Fund Climate Innovation Fund

Breakthrough Energy All Nippon Airways (ANA)

Airline Energy

Shell

MUFG (Mitsubishi UFJ) Southwest Airlines

Financial institution

10 11 12

Airline/offtaker Aerospace OEM Airport operator

Airbus

Groupe ADP

Table 2 LanzaJet’s global investor network includes strategic partners across aviation, energy, finance, and government committed to scaling SAF

lengths, are split into different fractions of product based on their boiling points, with the intent of isolating the fraction suitable for jet fuel. This means separating the hydrocarbons in the boiling range appropriate for meeting all jet fuel specifications as the main output. The remainder of the mixture is heavier than jet fuel and used to produce a renewable diesel output. Importantly, other SAF pathways such as HEFA and Fischer-Tropsch often produce several byproducts beyond jet fuel hydrocarbons, including light gases, naphtha, and other heavier oils. However, LanzaJet’s process is intentionally designed to deliver a high level of selectivity to SAF. Apart from a small amount of renewable diesel, the process does not produce any other byproducts. Flexibility: high SAF or RD selectivity Another bonus of LanzaJet’s pathway is that it can flexibly adjust its product slate. Typically, the output would be set to deliver 90% SAF and 10% renewable diesel (RD) from its biorefinery’s capacity. This high SAF selectivity is possible since LanzaJet’s pathway does not produce any naphtha. However, if needed, the operating conditions can be adjusted onstream without any changes to the ATJ unit’s design to redirect its product output and change the selectivity to a 75% RD and 25% SAF split. This flexibility can be achieved by making minor adjustments to the reaction conditions.

For example, by modifying the oligomerisation process through altered parameters such as temperature, pressure, and residence time, the distribution of hydrocarbon chain lengths can be actively controlled, thereby allowing more diesel and less SAF production. In all, the robustness of LanzaJet’s pathway has been the culmination of nearly 15 years of research, incubation, trial and error, scale-up, and perseverance. By taking on the challenge of building and operating its own facility, LanzaJet not only embraced the risk of construction, finance, and revenue but also set out to de-risk the scaling of an FOAK technology. However, it is clear that this process could not have been done without the unwavering support of a wide range of pioneering investors and partners. Attracting world-class investors LanzaJet’s combined technology expertise, pioneering approach, and overall commitment to sustainability have attracted a world-class array of investors, spanning the breadth of the SAF value chain (see Table 2 ). These partnerships not only provide financial backing but also facilitate the sharing of expertise and resources critical for enabling the company’s success and scaling. On numerous occasions, stakeholders have gone well beyond their traditional investment remit, not least LanzaJet’s airline partners. By investing in LanzaJet, British Airways (BA), All Nippon Airways, and Southwest Airlines

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have demonstrated a level of sustainability leadership and vision that would have seemed entirely impossible just a decade ago. The symbol of an airline, a notoriously profit-thin business, vertically integrating into its fuel supply chain represents a fundamental shift in the way the industry needs to operate, as it navigates its way through an industry-wide energy transition in real time. LanzaJet, BA, and Project Speedbird Further to their financial investment in the company, BA has been instrumental in advancing LanzaJet’s mission to scale its ATJ SAF, with the collaboration now setting its sights on delivering into the UK market. In July 2021, BA, LanzaJet, and Nova Pangaea Technologies (NPT), an ethanol company, were shortlisted in the UK’s Green Fuels, Green Skies competition. This award-winning submission would form the basis of what is now formally known as Project Speedbird, LanzaJet’s second planned commercial-scale facility to be delivered in the UK. This award funded the initial feasibility studies of the project, which included the exploration of NPT’s process of converting woody biomass waste into ethanol before being converted into SAF using LanzaJet’s ATJ process. In November 2022, BA and LanzaJet signed a formal agreement to pursue Project Speedbird, building on the foundations, designs, and lessons learnt from the Freedom Pines facility in the US. The goal was to build the UK’s first commercial-scale SAF facility, which would look to produce 113 million litres (30 million gallons) of SAF and RD per year from second- generation ethanol, procured from a range of local sources, including Nova Pangaea Technologies. This meant Project Speedbird would have three times the capacity of its predecessor, Freedom Pines Fuels. In November 2023, Project Speedbird was awarded £9 million ($11.2 million) from the UK Department for Transport’s Advanced Fuels Fund, which enabled the further advancement of the project towards the front- end engineering and design (FEED) phase, with support from BA in the form of an ‘offtake’ agreement for the SAF produced at the facility. Most recently, in January 2025, LanzaJet

selected Wilton International on Teesside in the northeast of the UK for Project Speedbird. Situated on land owned by leading industrial player Sembcorp, the site was selected due to the region’s increasing presence as an emerging green industrial cluster. The region’s mix of renewable energy, green hydrogen development, established infrastructure, and access to Teesside’s Freeport, along with strong regional government support, made it a strategic and compelling location. The facility, which is expected to start production in 2028, is set to create more than 250 construction jobs and more than 50 long- term skilled jobs, playing its role in driving regional economic growth and diversification in the north of the UK. Moreover, the SAF produced at the site will ultimately help to reduce around 230,000 tonnes of CO₂ per year, which is the equivalent to ~26,000 regional BA flights. Vision for the future: scaling SAF production LanzaJet is set to play a pivotal role in the global aviation industry’s net-zero transition. The company has announced its intent to produce more than 1.1 billion litres annually “ The SAF produced at the site will ultimately help to reduce around 230,000 tonnes of CO₂ per year, which is the equivalent to ~26,000 regional BA flights ” (300 million gallons), with an ambitious target of reaching 3.8 billion litres (1 billion gallons) by 2030. This scale-up will play an essential role in helping the sector meet both its near- and mid-term emissions targets, while offering a clear next-in-line option to follow the initial success of the HEFA pathway. The hope is that LanzaJet’s achievements can create a positive ripple effect throughout the industry, especially given the reliance on FOAK technology to fufill aviation’s net-zero goal by 2050.

Daniel Bloch daniel.bloch@lanzajet.com

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Redefining the renewable hydrogen landscape A practical model for scalable, cost-effective production, offering breakthrough giga-scale production capability

Richard D Colwill InterContinental Energy

G reen hydrogen-based fuels are generally only necessary in situations where no viable alternatives exist. While once hyped as a universal solution, it is now recognised that low-carbon fuels will be critical to the energy transition, albeit in a more targeted manner. Key industrial and transport sectors – such as green steel production, refineries, cement production, long-distance aviation, and shipping – are major sources of CO₂ emissions, and it is in these areas, where direct electrification is challenging, that green hydrogen fuels will play a crucial role. The lowest carbon intensity fuels are ‘e-fuels’, typically developed from renewable energy powering water electrolysis to create hydrogen, which may then be directly employed or further processed to produce ammonia, methanol, or ‘e-SAF’ – sustainable aviation fuels. While policy frameworks and project pipelines have

expanded, real-world large-scale production of e-fuels remains limited. High capital expenditure, complex infrastructure requirements, and inefficiencies related to centralised production continue to present challenges, and market development is slowed by current price points being too high. For hydrogen to support industrial and transport decarbonisation at a competitive scale, a shift in how it is produced, delivered, and priced is required. Traditional production models involve transporting electricity from large-scale wind or solar farms to distinct electrolysis facilities, sometimes located tens or hundreds of kilometres away from the generation site. This leads to energy losses through long-distance transmission and necessitates substantial investment in substations, transformers, and grid infrastructure. These technical and economic burdens are especially pronounced

Upstream

Downstream

Key:

Electrons 8% - 12% losses

Wind in upstream

Wind

Solar

Electrons 8% - 12% losses

Centralised processing

Electrolysis

Hydrogen storage

Hydrogen

Distributed electrolysis

1% - 2% losses

Ammonia production

Ammonia

Distributed processing

Ammonia storage

Ammonia

Distributed processing & storage

Ammonia export

Upstream

Downstream

Figure 1 A hierarchy of siting decisions when setting up a green e-fuels system (in this case, ammonia)

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Figure 2 Typical layout of a P2(H 2)Node

in remote or underdeveloped areas where grid capacity is limited, while grid infrastructure in developed areas often faces local opposition to pylons traversing the landscape. A hierarchy of siting decisions when setting up a green e-fuels system (in this case, ammonia) is illustrated in Figure 1 : The ‘Centralised Processing’ option is the model that has been principally adopted to date. However, it bears the costs, constraints, and inefficiencies of electrical transmission, and as the world moves to more directly electrified power systems, there is global pressure on supplies of copper, aluminium, and SQEP (Suitably Qualified and Experienced Personnel) to deliver electrical transmission systems. InterContinental Energy’s patented P2(H₂)Node system is a response to those challenges. It prioritises transmission efficiency, cost reduction, scalability, and replicability while offering breakthrough giga-scale production capability. Developed over four years by a multidisciplinary engineering team, it integrates

renewable electricity generation, electrolysis, hydrogen storage, and distribution into a co-located, modular platform. This ‘Distributed Electrolysis’ system rethinks where hydrogen should be produced and what infrastructure is required to support its deployment. The development of stand-alone ‘islanded’ power and process systems also protects from the risk of cascading grid failure, which may be present in a large integrated power system. Future for green hydrogen: standardisation, modularity, and deployment at scale The P2(H₂)Node system places hydrogen production at the centre of renewable energy projects. Each Node contains its own electrolysers, compression units, and integrated pipeline storage. Electricity from encircling wind and solar installations is directly ported for electrolysis (typically at 33 or 66 kV) via a series of electrical ‘strings’, eliminating the need for high-voltage power transmission, its associated costs, and losses.

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Figure 3 InterContinental Energy’s current portfolio of projects are sited at coastal desert locations with flat expanses of land and strong solar radiation

The system follows a uniform architecture, with each Node supporting approximately 1 GW of electrolysis capacity, powered by 2-2.5 GW of renewable energy. These repeatable modules can be developed in phases, allowing developers to align deployment with demand growth, financing stages, and infrastructure readiness. Lessons from delivering early Nodes can be applied directly to subsequent phases, reducing project risk and enabling faster delivery of each subsequent phase. Standardisation across Nodes supports economies of scale. By using common components such as electrolysers and compressors, equipment procurement and manufacturing can be streamlined; this approach reduces costs and accelerates project timelines. Analysis indicates that the P2(H₂)Node system can reduce capital expenditure by 10-20% compared to traditional models. Moreover, by co-locating hydrogen production with energy generation and using hydrogen pipelines for energy distribution, there is no need to invest in both significant electrical transmission and hydrogen transport infrastructure. The typical layout of a P2(H₂)Node is illustrated in Figure 2 . Modularity is retained throughout the system, with electrolysis being split across nominally eight electrolysis halls, each of approximately 125-150 MW total capacity for a total installed capacity of ~1.1 GW of electrolysis at each Node. At present, the system is being

designed to be commissioned and operated in independent quadrants, to create separate parallel electrical and process systems. Within each electrolysis hall, there will be scope for electrolyser turn-down and isolation of each electrolyser unit (nominally 5-10 MW capacity) to ensure peak system efficiency and minimise impact on membrane degradation associated with load cycling. The operation of multiple parallel units under a stack management system, and its response to the variable wind and solar inputs, is a key focus of ongoing digital twin development. Analysis identifies that careful site selection and balancing of wind and solar inputs can create an average electrolyser utilisation in excess of 70%. A principal feature of the system is its use of line packing for hydrogen storage. Instead of relying on dedicated tanks or underground caverns, hydrogen is compressed and stored directly within the export pipeline network. This approach reduces capital cost, simplifies infrastructure, and enables the consistent delivery of hydrogen to industrial users, as the stored hydrogen smooths out fluctuations in renewable power generation by acting as a buffer between supply and demand. InterContinental Energy has been closely following recent advances in spooled composite pipe technology, as these will offer significant advantages in installation and operation compared with conventional steel segmented pipe.

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Another challenge for green hydrogen production is access to purified water, which is required for electrolysis. This can be a major constraint in arid regions that have excellent solar and wind resources but limited freshwater. InterContinental Energy’s current portfolio of projects is sited at coastal desert locations (see Figure 3 ), and the P2(H₂)Node system adopts desalinated seawater, enabling self-sufficient operation in water-scarce locations. Projects are being planned on the basis of phasing desalination systems, which are powered by the project’s renewable energy supply. With the build-out of hydrogen production, this reduces strain on local water resources while also improving operational resilience in the face of climate-related risks. A key goal is to minimise the cooling loads of ammonia and other plant, which can require almost as much water intake as that required by the electrolysis. The architecture is also flexible in how hydrogen is delivered to market. In regions with existing industrial demand, such as steelmaking or fertiliser production, hydrogen can be transported via pipeline directly to end users. In other cases, hydrogen can be converted to ammonia or methanol on-site for easier storage and long- distance shipping. The ability to integrate vector production facilities into the same site allows the system to serve both domestic markets and international fuel supply chains. This flexibility is especially important in a developing hydrogen economy where infrastructure and demand maturity vary by region. Green hydrogen at real-world scale One of the largest green hydrogen projects is the Western Green Energy Hub in Western Australia. With up to 70 GW of renewable generation energy potential, this project, based around the P2(H₂)Node architecture, is expected to become the world’s largest green hydrogen and ammonia production hub. Built over 25+ years, the modular nature of the system allows for the deployment of up to 33 Nodes, with a total electrolysis capacity of ~35 GW, set across a vast area, while integrated desalination, storage, and ammonia conversion create a self-contained value chain. The scale of the project requires a significant review of wind farm losses (an issue currently impacting

offshore wind farms across Europe), and the final project size will need to balance turbine density, land usage, and array efficiency. Supported by Australian Government hydrogen production incentives, the project aims to deliver green ammonia for its first stage in the early 2030s at production costs below $650 per tonne, making it globally competitive against conventional ammonia derived from natural gas. The design and deployment model that will be used in the Western Green Energy Hub illustrates how the P2(H₂)Node system supports national energy goals while maintaining commercial viability. By using standardised architecture and proven technologies, the system avoids delays associated with bespoke engineering and enables faster delivery of benefits such as local job creation, infrastructure investment, and export revenue. Total investment will be in the order of $100 billion spread over around 25 years. Given the extra early infrastructure requirements, for example desalination and marine offloading facilities, the first stage is likely to require up to $15 billion. Investment is expected to be generated from international capital markets, set against long-term offtakes. From molecules to markets: where green hydrogen delivers impact Green hydrogen has broad potential across a range of industrial and transport applications. Direct applications include the steel industry, where it can be used in the reduction of iron, providing a lower-emission alternative to coal or gas-based processes. Cement production and refineries are also large emission sources, where low-carbon hydrogen feedstock can have a significant impact on CO₂ emissions reduction. There is also a range of other vectors that may be developed, including ammonia and methanol end products. Liquid organic hydrogen carriers (LOHCs) have also been promoted, but have yet to see widespread advocacy. Ammonia has been promoted as a hydrogen vector to enable shipping between producers and customers in Europe, where the hydrogen is extracted by cracking. While addressing the transport challenges of hydrogen (in either compressed or liquid form), this requires very competitive production costs to produce, post

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cracking, hydrogen at a cost acceptable to the market. A more sustainable use may be direct substitution of an existing ‘grey’ product with a zero-carbon alternative. For example, in fertiliser production, green hydrogen use enables the synthesis of ammonia with significantly reduced carbon intensity, addressing one of the most emissions- intensive areas of global agriculture. The maritime and aviation sectors are also beginning to explore zero-emission hydrogen- derived fuels such as ammonia and methanol as low-carbon alternatives to traditional bunker fuel and jet fuel. Each of these applications requires hydrogen to be available at scale and a very competitive cost. The recent measures agreed at the April 2025 International Maritime Organization’s Marine Environmental Protection Committee meeting (IMO MEPC83) outline a pathway for the adoption of low-carbon fuels to 2050, with significant demand anticipated from the mid-2030s. Green ammonia is being considered as a long- term option for marine fuels, as it is generated from established processes by reacting hydrogen with nitrogen sourced from the air to generate ammonia in a low-energy-intensity and relatively cheap process. A little chemistry is instructive, and the process for creating ammonia (NH₃) is simply the combination of hydrogen and nitrogen: 3H₂ + N₂ → 2NH₃ In this case, all the hydrogen created is embedded within the ammonia molecules. Other fuels, such as methanol (CH₃OH), require the addition of carbon dioxide. The This illustrates a key challenge for methanol: the conventional process results in one-third of all the hydrogen produced being reconverted back to water. As hydrogen production is the most expensive part of the process, this reconversion and loss mean that methanol, and further derivatives such as sustainable aviation fuel (e-SAF) will always carry a price premium. While markets such as aviation and local shipping may bear this premium, as the opportunities to use methanol and e-SAF as ‘drop-in’ fuels significantly reduce the costs of chemistry is illustrated as: 3H ₂ + CO₂ → CH₃OH + H₂O

supply infrastructure, the marine industry is not used to paying top dollar for its fuels. Traditionally, bunker fuel for international shipping (a market of ~300 million tonnes per annum) is designated as heavy fuel oil, and this is figuratively and literally the ‘bottom of the barrel’, being a tar-like residue, left at the base of distillation towers where more refined products are swept up. Against this background, the positioning of ammonia as one of the most cost- effective e-fuels is clear. With almost 50% of the ocean-going order book identified as dual-fuel or ‘alternative fuel ready’, it is apparent that the shipping industry is setting itself up to meet the challenges of future low-emission fuels. Meeting the challenge of scale The IMO MEPC83 decision is one of the first signals of multinational, coordinated action with respect to CO₂ emissions across a single industry. While no single fuel or technology is expected to dominate the long-distance shipping or aviation markets, there is a clear need to be able to produce zero-carbon fuels at scale, and in step with the transition to low- or zero-carbon fuels. This is where decentralised and modular systems can make a critical difference, as a shift to large-scale offtake in the 2030s will require not only supportive policies and investment but also practical, deployable systems designed for speed, efficiency, replication and, above all, scale. The P2(H₂)Node system exemplifies this approach, offering an integrated, modular solution that reduces project complexity and aligns with the needs of industry and infrastructure developers. Looking ahead, hydrogen will need to address a wide range of use cases, each with different requirements for cost, purity, and transportability. Flexible systems capable of adapting to diverse market conditions and geographies, are well- positioned to support this next phase of the energy transition. As hydrogen-based e-fuels become core components of the global fuel and feedstock mix, such practical solutions will help define the pace and direction of progress. P2(H 2 )Node is a trademark of InterContinental Energy.

Richard D Colwill

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Sector consolidation: good news for green hydrogen Trimming back to revitalise a more sustainable growth phase has been a prevailing theme in the green hydrogen sector in 2025

Stephen B Harrison sbh4 Consulting

Introduction Consolidation within the hydrogen electrolyser value chain will accelerate this decade. At present, weak players are being propped up by government subsidies and false hope. Poor ideas with only marginal potential are being hyped up as revolutionary. Consolidation will mean survival of the fittest. Those with the best technology, the best commercialisation strategy, and the strongest partnerships will make it. Others will either fall by the wayside or be integrated into the winners.

There will be winners and losers along the way. However, the electrolyser industry will enter the 2030s in much better shape than it is now. The dream of green hydrogen at a cost of less than €3 per tonne may still be achieved if the sector focuses on the essentials and avoids unnecessary distractions (see Figure 1 ). Cutting back The deployment gap of electrolysers for green hydrogen production is enormously wide. Many project announcements from several

Hydrogen FCEV/FCEB

Hydrogen ad-mixing into natural gas pipeline

Synthetic fuels via Fischer - Tropsch

Fuel cell

Wind

Desulphurisation of fossil fuels

Hydro power

Gas turbine

Upgrading biofuels

Hydrogen storage/ distribution

Electricity grid

LH2

Battery

Biomass

Methanol

Gasication

Invertor

Rectier

Ammonia

Other end use

Metals rening

Hydrogen electrolyser

Solar PV

Figure 1 Renewable hydrogen production, distribution, storage, and utilisation value chains

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Typical investor

Angel

Early stage VC

Late stage VC/PE

Bulge bracket PE/Infra

$10 K - $250 K

$250 K - $5 M

$5 M - $50 M

Typical investment

$50 M - $200 M

$200 M - Billions

Targeted nancial returns Typical holding period Typical technology maturity (TRL) Financing stage and investment type

6 - 8 years

5 - 7 years

3 - 7 years

3 - 5 years

8 - 10 years

> 75% IRR or +10x > 60% IRR or +10x > 40% IRR or +7x

~25 to 35% IRR or +5x

> 18% IRR or +3x

Growth capital, Series A to C rounds with full due dilligence

Seed capital, rst institutional check

Initial raise, friends and family, angel investors

Series C round to IPO with full prospectus

Majority control, debt leveraged

1 - 3

2 - 4

4 - 7

7 - 8

8 - 9

Developments of emerging and established technologies

Example decarbonisation technologies

Tech

Projects

MOF

Tech e-fuels

DAC

PEM/AEC

CO Solvent

SOEC/AEM

Figure 2 Business maturity and typical decarbonisation investment characteristics

years ago failed to make it through to the final investment decision (FID), and some that did have subsequently been cancelled. Investor pressure in this sector is heavy. Johnson Matthey (JM) has recently confirmed that it will cut the costs in its hydrogen electrolyser and fuel cell membrane electrode assembly (MEA) assembly business by 85% (The Chemical Engineer, 2025) . Its blue hydrogen catalyst business and ammonia cracking catalysts are included in a division that has been proposed to be sold to the US Technology licensor Honeywell UOP (Johnson Matthey, 2025) . As a result of these changes, JM will significantly reduce its exposure to the hydrogen economy. Air Products has experienced several months of turmoil at the top. CEO Seifi Ghasemi, arguably the world’s most ambitious green hydrogen pioneer, has been ousted from the board (Collins, 2025) . The D. E. Shaw Group and Mantle Ridge, two significant investors in Air Products, made their dissatisfaction public through open letters (The Fly, 2025) . They put pressure on Air Products to make more efficient use of capital and reduce the risk of their investments. Green hydrogen projects without offtakers have been at the heart of the controversy, and a broad level of investor pressure forced Air Products to cancel its participation in a 50:50 JV with AES to build a $4 billion, 1.4 GW green hydrogen plant in north Texas (Bettenhausen, 2024). Fortescue has been one of the boldest

protagonists of green hydrogen. Its ambitions to develop green hydrogen projects in Australia began to unravel in 2024 (Martin, 2024) . In 2025, it announced its intent to consider the closure of its 2GW capacity electrolyser production plant in Geraldton. The need for electrolysers for its own projects was low, and the external market demand was insufficient. In 2025, MAN Energy Solutions announced it would cut 120 jobs at Quest One, its proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolyser producer (Quest One, 2025) . Quest One operates an electrolyser production factory in Hamburg, but orders were well below the capacity of the plant. The cuts will reduce the cost base of the company and enable a more competitive offering in the future. Trimming back has been a prevailing theme in the green hydrogen sector in 2025. Like pruning a tree, what will remain is a healthier core to revitalise a more sustainable phase of growth in the future. Innovation needs critical mass Finance for speculative innovation in the electrolyser value chain will become scarce and increasingly expensive. The wave of buy- side venture capital (VC) investor interest from the past five years is likely to shift to private equity (PE) consolidation plays and other value- seeking deals (see Figure 2 ). The next wave of high-value green hydrogen

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Europe North America

Alkaline PEM SOEC AEM Other

OEM Start - up Integrator

China APAC

Stacks Demo

APAC data excludes China. In the technology split, some players feature more than once. Alkaline includes pressurised and atmospheric pressure. Notes: Numbers shown are number of players as of November 2023 .

Integrator - Purchasing stacks and building systems Stacks - Focused on stack production, not systems Demo - First commercial demonstration ach ie ved

PEM - Proton e xchange m embrane SOEC - Solid o xide e lectrolysis AEM - Anion ex change m embrane OEM - Original equipment manufacturer

Figure 3 Electrolyser producers and emerging players

In 2025, Green Hydrogen Systems (GHS) ran out of cash. Even though investors such as Maersk had supported this Danish entity for several years with equity injections, GHS was forced to close ( Collins, 2025) . French PEM electrolyser maker Elogen did not announce any new sales orders in 2024. It is now at risk of divestment or closure after its owner, gas technology company GTT, announced that it was undertaking a strategic review of its subsidiary’s activities, with ‘all possible options’ on the table to limit the financing needs of Elogen ( Collins, 2025). 2025 could also be a pivotal year for Canada’s Next Hydrogen. Its innovative pressurised alkaline stack design has been in development for 10 years, but commercial traction has not been inadequate. Despite securing CAD 5 million in working capital debt from Export Development Canada, Next Hydrogen has communicated concerns over its viability as a going concern ( Currie & Currie, 2025). Potential consolidation wave For those that do not close, there is the potential for mergers or takeovers. This is nothing new for the sector. Plug Power acquired Giner ELX for more than $60 million in 2020 (MarketScreener, 2020) . Similarly, Sunfire acquired alkaline electrolyser technology from IHT in 2021 (Sunfire, 2021) . Others may collaborate to pool resources and share development budgets, as Industrie De Nora and thyssenkrupp Industrial Solutions

electrolyser transactions will optimise the value of what has been achieved over the past 10 years and leverage aspects that are currently being commercialised. This is precisely what the sector needs. There will inevitably be rising costs of innovation as electrolyser technologies mature, because developments will need to be proven at an ever-larger scale to demonstrate long-term competitiveness and bankability. Also, the cost of growth capital in this space will increase due to higher perceived risk and a more realistic expectation of returns. Interest rates are higher now than during the hype years of green hydrogen at the turn of the decade, which will also thin out the field. Fewer, bigger electrolyser value chain players with strong backing are essential for the next phase of hydrogen electrolyser innovation. Only the premium players and the greatest ideas will prevail. Closures and upcoming difficulties There are more than 100 stack builders, electrolyser systems producers and systems integrators active globally (see Figure 3 ). More and more players are likely to fall by the wayside in the same way that AquaHydrex filed for bankruptcy and folded its alkaline electrolyser R&D efforts in October of 2023. After spending millions of dollars of investment equity, there was unfortunately no other electrolyser original equipment manufacturer (OEM) willing to buy its assets or IP.

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Regenerative twin bed dryer for hydrogen purication

Electricity

Catalytic de-oxo unit

Safety gas analysis H in O

Compressor

Final product quality gas analysis

Safety gas analysis O in H

Transformer

Gas holder

Demister

Water feed

A C

Rectier

Feed water pump

D C

Purier

Scrubber

Cooler

Phase separator

Alkaline electrolysis stack

Filter

–

Filter

Lye recycle

KOH management

Lye tank

Fresh KOH

Figure 4 Low-pressure alkaline water electrolysis process

have done since 2001. This partnership has continued through the 2022 initial public offering (IPO) of thyssenkrupp nucera. Soon after GHS announced the onset of its bankruptcy proceedings, thyssenkrupp nucera agreed to purchase its Intellectual Property and test equipment ( thyssenkrupp nucera, 2025 ). While this was not a full acquisition, it may have been a helpful cash injection to cushion the blow for GHS. If consolidation begins in earnest, there will be a race to capture the genuine gold nuggets. Prices will move from rescue packages to strategic valuations, and fear of missing out will determine the pace. If some bigger dominoes begin to fall this year, we could be 80% of the way through the electrolyser value chain consolidation wave by 2030. EPCs have skin in the game The next five years will not only be about pouncing tigers. There will be many constructive ways in which the electrolyser production and innovation space will evolve. International energy and chemicals sector engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) companies, which have been involved

with electrolyser installation projects and enjoy a strong market presence, may seek to take over electrolyser OEMs or stack builders. At the end of the day, what they really need are stacks to integrate into projects. The balance of plant (BOP) around the stack is ultimately their bread-and-butter business and has been for decades. If they were to take an electrolyser OEM, would they break it up to keep the stack technology and shut down the systems side of the legacy operation? Paul Wurth, a plant builder focused on the metals industry, was the lead investor in Sunfire’s series C fundraising round in 2019. At that time, Sunfire focused on solid oxide electrolysers and fuel cells. EPCs and electrolyser producers have a history of partnership. In 2023, McPhy and Larsen & Toubro announced an agreement for hydrogen-related equipment. McPhy contributed its electrolyser technology, while Larsen & Toubro, a leading Indian EPC house, has access to extensive manufacturing facilities. In 2025, McPhy announced its bankruptcy. A French court granted it time to look for a ‘European industrial player’ to take over a portion of its business. Indeed, in July, it was

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